Two Sides of a Coin
$1764
Entering Phase Three of the Gold Bull Market
| 10 Aug 2011 |
Suddenly the coin has only 1 sideWith the likes of JP Morgan forecasting gold to rise sharply, the contrarian gold bugs have been proven right. The MSM has joined the dance. “Gold could reach $2500 by Dec2011″ JP Morgan [WSJ]
Until circumstances change, this table will now take a rest momentarily. We’ll flip to the other side of the coin and catalogue a series of forecast as they hit the media. |
When gold breaches $1764 to the upside, it will enter Phase Three of the Gold Bull Market and possibly go exponential. Jim Sinclair [GoldMoneyFoundation]
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| 08 Jun 2011 |
Silver Speculative Bubble has Burst. We should have all been anticipating an end to the speculative bubble in Silver, and the advent of a bear market … Lacking fundamentals, other than imaginary ones, to justify the speculative price bubble, Silver’s collapse was a when not if situation…. Repetitive sets of bear market patterns should be expected after the failure of Silver’s parabolic rise. Such periods are without compassion for those that “fight the tape.” A reasonable resolution of Silver parabolic pattern failure is a price target of $16. (May 10, 2011) Ned Schmidt [Financial Sense] - |
To us a very low LCNS:TO reading means that the largest hedgers and short sellers are not motivated to press the short side and have instead seen fit to greatly reduce their net short exposure. It means that there is now a much larger amount of bullish “horsepower” that could come back into the market at any moment. It usually means that we are getting close to an upside reversal. Finally, a very low LCNS:TO (below 33%) is almost always associated with silver lows or near silver lows. (June 07, 2011) Gene Arensberg [GotGoldReport] - |
| 12 May 2011 |
What’s ahead for silver after May correction? “Metals could go back up in June/July, come off in July/August & by the end of the year silver might be around $26 and gold around $1380-1400″.. (towards end of Bloomberg interview) Jeffrey Christian, Founder CPM Group [Bloomberg] - |
“This time I expect silver will take only several weeks before exceeding $49.78, the 31-year high reached on April 25th”. The reason?… click on link to read more. James Turk, Founder GoldMoney [KWN] - |
| 02 May 2011 |
Silver might crash? Yes: We believe that the market has been exhibiting the precursory signatures of power law behaviour, and that the internet power law of participation phenomena has produced a point of criticality whereby we have seen the top in silver for this half of the year. We believe a real shake out is imminent, in the order of $15 dollars over 3 to 5 days. Ben Davies, CEO of Hinde Capital [KWN] - |
No: JP Morgan will ultimately fail trying to keep silver price from rising above its stock price. JPM has used its own stock to collateralize naked shorts against Silver. The current struggle to break free of the JPM stock price was anticipated. This level will fall and then the $50 level will be taken out quite quickly as we march toward $500 and the collapse of the US dollar. Max Keiser [Maxkeiser.com] - |
| 25 Apr 2011 |
Is there really a silver shortage? NO: The purpose of this discussion has been to inform the reader as to how much silver is really out there. Perhaps one may experience a delay in acquiring specific forms of silver such as minted coins and the like, but this is a production issue, not an overall supply issue. Mark Taylor [321Gold] - |
YES: Here we are with silver touching $49 in Asian trading this morning, yet it remains in a 63 cent backwardation from spot to December 2015. As long as silver remains in backwardation, price declines will be short-lived, it’s also telling us that silver has not yet reached a top on this move. James Turk, GoldMoney [KWN] - |
| 22 Apr 2011 |
Current Gold bull run is not sustainable YES: Many of the fundamental drivers of gold’s current bull run appear unsustainable over the longer-term. As a result, the Chicago-based investment research firm has lowered its 2014 forecast for gold to $1,200 an ounce, down 26% from its previous estimate. Morningstar, investment research firm [Barrons] - |
NO: It’s based on solid fundamentals. Furthermore, gold will be Money again, but at what price? I’ll say the equivalent of about $5,000 an ounce of today’s dollars. And I feel pretty good about that number, considering where we are in the current gold bull market. Doug Casey, Chairman [Casey Research] - |
| Apr 2011 | Silver market is overheated to the Nthpower? YES: The Silver market has gone parabolic… We are not talking about a 5% correction setting up at these levels for silver, we are talking in terms of a 20% down day that poses a contagion effect to markets in general. Dian L. Chu, [EconMatters] - |
NO: Follow the Money! How can we be so confident that the price of silver will continue on its upward trajectory? Our thesis is premised on the most rudimentary of economic principles – supply and demand. Eric Sprott & Andrew Morris, Sprott Asset Mgmt [Sprott.com] - |
| Apr 2011 | Are Mining Stocks a good investment now? NO: Physical bullion to be a more reliable investment. At times mining stocks may go up in price faster and farther than physical gold, but they also tend to drop further and faster. Over the long haul, we believe physical bullion to be a more reliable investment. Michael Maloney [GoldSilver.com] |
YES: We had four year consolidation but the earnings stream of the companies have 5-7 folded. Most investors are still ignoring the fact that profitability is actually skyrocketing. Once we breakout on the upside we are looking for a 60-100% return in the mines within the next 18 months. Juerg Kiener, Swiss Asia Capital [CNBC] |
| - Apr 2011 |
- Will the Gold/Silver Ratio continue to drop? NO: Sell Silver as Gold Ratio Pointing to Slump. The gold-to-silver ratio is telling me that you should be long gold and short silver. Jonathan Barratt, Commodity Broking Services [Bloomberg] |
- YES: $5,000 Gold and $300 Silver are Credible Numbers. If gold goes to $5,000 an ounce, and the silver/gold price ratio remains 16:1, there’s silver at $312.50 per ounce. James West [MidasLetter] |
| - Mar 2011 |
- Is silver approaching a temporary TOP? YES: It’s a temporary top. Silver has doubled since late August. It’s gone up about 45% since a small correction at the end of January… Silver was up today for the 7th day in a row before collapsing and causing an outside day.We may have a couple more days of rises but this market is getting pretty tired. Bob Moriarty [321Gold.com] |
- NO: Given the still gigantic short positions on the silver futures market, this short squeeze could persist for some time. Increasing price volatility as the squeeze continues is likely. But the all-time high of just under 50 USD/ounce could, if the current pace of appreciation persists, be broken this year. James Turk [Goldmoney.com] |
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Two sides of a coin is a compilation of forecasts related to gold, silver, monetary & financial trends by industry analysts.
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