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When will the paper currency you’re holding be the next victim of this global currency war?

September 7, 2011 Leave a comment

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Top 10 currency gainers as at Aug 2011

Top 10 currency gainers as at Aug 2011

Two weeks ago, the Swiss Franc was one of the most sought after currencies. Yesterday, a short statement from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) turned the tide.

The current massive overvaluation of the Swiss franc poses an acute threat to the Swiss economy and carries the risk of a deflationary development.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is therefore aiming for a substantial and sustained weakening of the Swiss franc. With immediate effect, it will no longer tolerate a EUR/CHF exchange rate below the minimum rate of CHF 1.20. The SNB will enforce this minimum rate with the utmost determination and is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities.

Even at a rate of CHF 1.20 per euro, the Swiss franc is still high and should continue to weaken over time. If the economic outlook and deflationary risks so require, the SNB will take further measures

That’s how fragile the so called safe haven currencies are. Their value and potential devaluation is just a few keystrokes away. This was not the first time the SNB intervened to devalue its currency. It quadrupled its foreign currency holdings in the first half of 2010 in a similar effort to manage the CHF resulting in a record $21 billion loss. Going further back, it pegged the Franc to the German Mark at 0.80 in 1978 resulting in soaring inflation.

Yesterday’s intervention resulted in this dramatic move in the price of gold priced in CHF. That’s not surprising considering the fact that it pledged to ” buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities”. Unlike Greece and other Eurozone countries in crisis, the SNB can print unlimited quantities of CHF to honour that pledge.

Gold priced in CHF after the SNB statement

Gold priced in CHF gained 8% following the SNB statement

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The Big Picture of CHF devaluation - One Year Gold in CHF

Putting a floor below 1.2 EUR/CHF appears to be worse than the much criticized move by Malaysia to peg the Ringgit at 3.8 to the USD in 1998. Unlike a peg, a floor allows the CHF to weaken but not strengthen against the EUR. One has to wonder, what will happen to this “former safe haven” currency if the Euro collapsed.

Of late, currency devaluation, capital controls and aggressive central bank interventions have become acceptable, if not respectable, as seen in Brazil, Japan, Switzerland, Iceland, Vietnam & the once almighty US, just to name a few.

When will the paper currency you’re holding be the next victim of this global currency war?

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Why $20,000 Gold doesn’t excite me

August 24, 2011 3 comments

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It scares me!

Gold punched through $1,900 today. If the current financial system can withstand the stress and remained intact till the day gold trades at $20,000 an ounce, what will life be like then?

If we’re holding gold at that time, we may be doing fine but we are not likely to be 10 times richer. That’s because nothing much has happened to our gold. Rather, paper currencies would have lost so much purchasing power that it would take 10 times more of the same to buy what we could buy today. A Big Mac will most likely cost around $43 in the US. In Malaysia, NZ and Britain, it’ll like be  around RM76NZ$54 and £25 respectively (estimates based on Big Mac Index). When a basic meal costs that much, life can be very tough for savers who continued holding on to their paper currencies or other paper assets.

Many of my friends and relatives, from retired professionals to missionaries have been ill advised to rely on supposedly safe or high yielding investments like mutual funds, government managed pension schemes, term deposits or hot stocks to generate passive income or preserve the value of their retirement funds. Despite being presented with information from this website and elsewhere, there’s little affinity shown towards gold or silver. This scares me and for their sake, I hope gold does not get anywhere close to $20,000 before they get on board.

What’s even scarier is the fact that an enormously huge segment of society do not have the means to get on board, even if they wanted to. We’re looking at the 1.4 billion people living on less than NZ$2.25 a day. That’s less than 0.05 ounces of silver! They worry not about the Fed nor the Cartel but about how to provide food, clothing, housing and healthcare with that amount each day. It’s about survival, not savings. Pause for a moment to imagine their plight when gold hits $20,000.  Spare them a thought today, and check out their appeal for assistance.

Why $20,000 gold?

In this recently released documentary, Mike Maloney presents the case for $20,000 gold by stepping back and looking at the big picture. He takes us back, very far back, and paints us a very big picture. This excellent educational video is a must watch, especially if you’re new to the Political Metals space. It’ll be your 90 minutes well spent.

But if you can’t spare the time, I’ve highlighted some of his key points with some new charts below for a quick read.

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Dow/Gold Ratio Chart: Where are we in the Wealth Cycle? 

Using the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) as a measure of performance of the equities market in general, the ratio of the Dow to the price of gold indicates the performance of equities market relative to gold. Currently each point of the Dow is worth about 6oz of gold. During the process of correction after the biggest stock market bubble in history, the ratio is expected to head towards the historical mean (4oz) and overshoot it before finding its fair value again.

The bigger the bubble (deviation from mean), the larger the overshoot. During the present cycle, Mike expects the overshoot to touch 0.5:1 (1 oz of gold worth 2 points of Dow). In its extreme, the Dow would have to collapse from 11,000 to 950 if the price of gold remains at current level of $1,900. Conversely, gold will increase to $22,000 if the Dow remains at current levels.

Relative performance of Dow Vs Gold & Silver since Jan 2000
(Worst reference point, at peak of stock market bubble)

Relative performance of Dow Vs Gold & Silver since March 2009
(Best reference point, at the start of QE1)

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Currency Supply Chart: Where are we in the Inflation/Deflation Cycle?

For simplicity, “money” & “currency” are used interchangeably here. Watch the video to see the difference.

Monetary inflation is the increase in money supply resulting in price inflation (rising prices of goods & services), with a time lag between the former and the latter. The reverse applies to monetary deflation and price deflation. Studying the trend in money supply or the total amount of currency in circulation (CinC) over a period of time gives us an idea of where we are and where we’re heading in terms of inflation and deflation.

Money is created in two stages. The initial Base Money is created by the Fed (or other central banks). More new money is then created (up to 9 times the initial Base Money) within the private banking system through credit. It is loaned into existence. Watch the video to learn more about the money creation process.

The chart above  represents the amount of CinC that’s exclusively created by the private banking system. The highlighted area indicates that this component of the overall money supply has dropped by $1.7T since the 2008 crisis. This is the Debt Collapse or Credit Contraction. Less lending by banks results in less money chasing goods and services, leading to price & asset deflation. It is evident from the chart that a contraction of this magnitude has never happened since 1960. The last time it happened was just before the Great Depression of the 1930s.

M1: Increase in Base MoneyIn response to this credit contraction, and in an attempt to prevent another Great Depression, the Fed has been rapidly increasing the Base Money supply by creating new money. The recent rate of increase is unprecedented. The first trillion dollars was created over a period of about 90 years. The next $1.4T came into existence over the last 2 years!

This rapid increase in Base Money (red chart) was an attempt to offset the decrease in the credit money (blue chart). When we add these two components of money supply together, we obtain the total CinC (Base Money plus Credit Money) as shown in the chart below.

Notice the contraction at the top of the chart, albeit a smaller one. It is evident that despite the frantic pace of money printing by the Fed, it has not succeeded in offsetting the reduction in money supply due to credit contraction.

The Fed has little choice but to continue creating money.  With such a large perturbation in total currency supply and due to the complexity and size of the monetary system, it is not possible for the Fed or anyone else to create just sufficient money at just the right rate such that the total CinC won’t overshoot its long term trend. The principle that the larger the deviation from the mean, the larger will be the overshoot during the correction applies here as in the stock market above. The fact that there’s an undetermined time lag, between monetary inflation and price inflation further adds to the likelihood that the next round of money printing will result in a massive overshoot. Coupled with other factors, hyperinflation could be just round the corner.

Deflation or Inflation?

In his book, Rich Dad’s Advisors: Guide to Investing In Gold and Silver: Protect Your Financial Future, and again in his presentation, Mike predicted the following sequence of events:-

  1. Threat of deflation - At the onset of the 2008 crisis (Past)
  2. Money printing - TARP, QE1, QE2 (Past & more to come)
  3. Big inflation - Here and now (anyone disagree?)
  4. Real deflation - Asset deflation in real estate & stock market (The severe but short deflation  is ahead)
  5. Hyperinflation - Just round the corner?

How does gold perform under inflation and deflation environment? Check out the study by Oxford Economics: “Impact of inflation and deflation on the case for gold”.

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The Crime Against Silver

August 6, 2011 Leave a comment

Submitted by Richard (Rick) Mills | Ahead of the Herd

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As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information

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In 1873, the Fourth Coinage Act was enacted by the US Congress. Western silver miners labeled this measure the “Crime of ’73″ because it stopped the printing of US silver dollars. The US had, unofficially, abandoned its bimetallic standard in favor of a monometallic one – gold.

The supply of silver not being used for coinage increased - European Nations had just gone from a silver to a gold standard, the US was no longer coining silver dollars and these two factors, when coupled with massive new silver discoveries in the American west, caused the price of silver to collapse.

There was once a time in history when people acted. . . . Farmers were trapped in debt. They were the most oppressed of Americans, they experimented with cooperative purchasing and marketing, they tried to find their own way out of the strangle hold of debt to merchants, but none of this could work if they couldn’t get capital. So they had to turn to politics, and they had to organize themselves into a party. . . . The populists didn’t just organize a political party, they made a movement. They had picnics and parties and newsletters and classes and courses, and they taught themselves, and they taught each other, and they became a group of people with a sense of purpose, a group of people with courage, a group of people with dignity.

Lawrence Goodwin, author of The Populist Moment

Western miners, seeking the right to turn silver directly into money, mid-western grain and southern cotton farmers (who both had immense debts because of price deflation caused by overproduction) rallied to silver’s cause and the movement became known as Free Silver. The Populist Party had a strong Free Silver element and its merger with the Democratic Party moved Democrats from being in support of a monometallic gold standard to the Free Silver position.

Free Silver supporters were called “Silverites.”

Silverite’s argued that silver should continue to be part of the monetary standard with gold, their slogan was “16 to 1″ – sixteen ounces of silver would be equal in value to one ounce of gold, using the ratio established in the Coinage Act of 1834.

Silverites also wanted “free coinage of silver” as authorized under the Coinage Act of 1792. Free coinage meant anyone who possessed uncoined gold could bring it to one of the United States Mints and trade it for its equivalent in gold coins, less a small deduction - Free Silver advocates wanted the mints to accept silver on the same principle. These inflationary measures would have increased the amount of money in circulation and helped debtors pay off their debts, while harming creditors and savers.

Opponents to the Free Silver movement were mostly the financial establishments of the Northeast - the moneylenders, creditors, banks, leaseholders, and landlords - they backed a monometallic gold standard - the expanding economy had constrained the money supply available on a gold only standard, this had made the dollar stronger and decreased prices, opponents of Free Silver wanted to keep it that way.

The Republican Party was against Free Silver, the party’s position being that the best way to national prosperity was “sound money.” Republicans favored a continued strong dollar, which rewarded savers and creditors.

Battle lines were drawn, on one side were the Free Silver proponents – miners, farmers, debtors and Democrats - who wanted a bimetallic standard, the free coinage of silver and inflation. On the other side of the line were the creditors and Republicans who wanted to keep a strong currency using a gold only standard.

Intense pressure caused the U.S. government to agree to the Bland-Allison Act of 1878, this act directed the Treasury to purchase silver at a high price. The Sherman Silver Purchase Act was enacted on July 14, 1890. It didn’t authorize the free and unlimited coinage of silver that the Free Silver supporters wanted, but it did increase, by a large amount, the amount of silver the government was required to purchase every month.

Using a special issue of Treasury Notes that could be redeemed for either silver, or gold, the US government became the second largest silver buyer in the world - after the government of India.

By 1893 the US was in one of the worst depressions in American history and people were turning in the new Treasury Notes for gold and depleting the government’s gold reserves. President Grover Cleveland (R) forced the repeal of both the Bland-Allison and Sherman Silver Purchase Acts.

Democrats failed to win any presidential elections in which the Free Silver issue was front and center. When a Democrat, Woodrow Wilson, won in 1912 he signed into law, in 1913, the Federal Reserve Act that created and set up the Democrats version of a Federal Reserve - having congressional oversight.

The Republicans had their own Aldrich Plan for a Federal Reserve - it gave control to private bankers. There was strong opposition, mostly from rural and western states. They feared that the Fed would become a tool of rich and powerful eastern bankers based in New York City - the “Money Trust.”

In 1913 the Pujo Committee Report concluded that a group of influential financial leaders had gained control of US manufacturing, transportation, mining, telecommunications and financial markets - no less than eighteen different major financial corporations were under control of a cartel led by J.P Morgan, George F Baker and James Stillman.

Silver metal was recognized as more precious than gold when bartering in ancient Egypt - this recorded as early as 930 BC. Silver’s use as money in coin form began around 2600 years ago. Silver and gold have stood the test of time, as a medium of exchange, a storehouse of value and a safe haven in times of turmoil.

Back to the future where we find the little bit of history, just presented, made even more fascinating by events unfolding in a Far Far Away place - Washington. Interesting to read a bit about the history of both sides in the now concluded debt ceiling debate.

One might think that the recent drama over the debt ceiling involves one side wanting to increase or maintain spending with the other side wanting to drastically cut spending, but that is far from the truth. In spite of the rhetoric being thrown around, the real debate is over how much government spending will increase.

No plan under serious consideration cuts spending in the way you and I think about it. Instead, the “cuts” being discussed are illusory, and are not cuts from current amounts being spent, but cuts in projected spending increases. This is akin to a family “saving” $100,000 in expenses by deciding not to buy a Lamborghini, and instead getting a fully loaded Mercedes, when really their budget dictates that they need to stick with their perfectly serviceable Honda. But this is the type of math Washington uses to mask the incriminating truth about their unrepentant plundering of the American people.

Ron Paul (R)

Only a third of mined silver production comes from the production of primary silver mines, the rest comes from mined production of other metals, namely zinc and lead, 25% is from production of copper mines (Chile has very little primary silver production but is the fifth largest silver producing country) and the rest is from production at gold mines.

Mined silver production rose by 2.5 percent to 735.9 M oz in 2010 - gains came from primary silver mines and as a by-product of lead/zinc mining activity. Silver produced as a by-product of gold mining fell four percent in 2010.

Tom Albanese, CEO Rio Tinto Group, the world’s second largest mining company, said that the copper industry has struggled to maintain supply because of declining ore grades (ore grades averaged 0.76 percent copper content in 2009, compared with 0.9 percent in 2002), delays to mine expansions and disruption from strikes. Christine Meilton, chief consultant at CRU Group said there was a risk some copper projects, expected to come on stream in 2012 and 2013, will be delayed because of red tape, poor infrastructure and funding difficulties.

A Report by the APS Panel on Public Affairs and the Materials Research Society coined the term “energy-critical element” (ECE) to describe a class of chemical elements that currently appear critical to one or more new, energy related technologies.

Energy-related systems are typically materials intensive. As new technologies are widely deployed, significant quantities of the elements required to manufacture them will be needed. However, many of these unfamiliar elements are not presently mined, refined, or traded in large quantities, and, as a result, their availability might be constrained by many complex factors. A shortage of these energy-critical elements (ECEs) could significantly inhibit the adoption of otherwise game-changing energy technologies. This, in turn, would limit the competitiveness of U.S. industries and the domestic scientific enterprise and, eventually, diminish the quality of life in the United States.

The focus of the report was on energy technologies with the potential for large-scale deployment so the elements they listed are energy critical: silver was listed as one of their choices based on its use in advanced photovoltaic solar cells, especially thin film photovoltaics.

Conclusion

Silver investment rose by 40% during 2010 to 279.3 million ounces, almost double the amount for 2009. Demand increased to 167.0 M ozs (+5.1%) for jewelry and 101.3 M ozs (+22%) for coins. Other major usage categories are photography (72.7 M ozs, down 8.3%), and silverware (50.3 million ozs).

Industrial use accounted for the bulk of silver fabrication demand in 2010,  487.4 million ounces, up from 403.8 million ounces in 2009 - an annual increase of 20.7 percent.

Total silver demand in 2010 jumped 14.59 percent while the silver surplus - the difference between supply and fabrication demand - dropped 12 percent to 173.4 million ounces. Primary silver mining cash costs were unchanged at $5.27 an ounce in 2010.

The Federal Reserve first issued its debt based paper money in 1913. Since then the US dollar has lost plus 95% of its value. The history of fiat money has always been one of failure. The US dollar was backed by gold and silver, then just gold - the dollar use to be the rock all the worlds currencies were anchored to but when it became fiat, all the worlds currencies became fiat.

The Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange (HKMEx) has recently announced that they will roll out Yuan denominated silver futures contracts. This exchange will:

  • Grant Asian investors direct access to silver futures
  • Blunt U.S. dominance in silver trading by reducing the importance and influence of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)

According to the HKMEx China is already becoming a  factor in the silver market. From 2008 to 2010, silver demand soared 67% in China and China accounted for nearly 23% of global silver consumption in 2010.

In 2010 India consumed 2,800 tonnes of silver, 2011’s consumption is forecast to rise to 5,000 tonnes. India’s state-owned trading company -  Minerals and Metals Trading Corporation (MMTC) said it would import 1,200 tons of  Silver in 2011-12 as demand for the precious metal is rising fast.

The rising demand for silver bullion products with 99.99% fineness has started a new trend - silver denominated notes reminiscent of turn of the century American silver certificates are becoming quite popular in India, the difference is, these Indian notes are actually made of silver.

The silver notes closely resemble the country´s rupee and are very popular among the country´s younger generation and rapidly growing middle class. The nominal value of each note corresponds to its respective weight in silver - a note with a face value of 10 rupees is equal to 10 grams of silver.

Silver should be on every investors radar screen. Is it on yours?

If not, maybe it should be.

Richard (Rick) Mills
[email protected]
www.aheadoftheherd.com


Richard is host of Aheadoftheherd.com and invests in the junior resource sector. His articles have been published on over 300 websites, including: Wall Street Journal, SafeHaven, Market Oracle, USAToday, National Post, Stockhouse, Lewrockwell, Uranium Miner, Casey Research, 24hgold, Vancouver Sun, SilverBearCafe, Infomine, Huffington Post, Mineweb, 321Gold, Kitco, Gold-Eagle, The Gold/Energy Reports, Calgary Herald, Resource Investor, Mining.com, Forbes, FNArena, Uraniumseek, and Financial Sense.

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This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Richard Mills has based this document on information obtained from sources he believes to be reliable but which has not been independently verified; Richard Mills makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Richard Mills only and are subject to change without notice. Richard Mills assumes no warranty, liability or guarantee for the current relevance, correctness or completeness of any information provided within this Report and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Furthermore, I, Richard Mills, assume no liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage or, in particular, for lost profit, which you may incur as a result of the use and existence of the information provided within this Report.

Richard Mills does not own shares of any companies mentioned in this report.