Political Metals

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[Active updates: Developing stories] The South Carolina Treasurer’s Office, acting upon a directive from the state legislature, has recently published a report on the advisability of investing in gold and silver. Basically, the state legislature wanted to know if it’s wise to invest public funds under it’s custody in gold & silver.

 Here’s what the Treasurer’s Office has to say about itself:

Our mission is to serve the citizens of South Carolina by providing the most efficient banking, investment and financial management service for South Carolina State Government. Our commitment is to safeguard our State’s financial resources and to maximize return on our State’s investments.

This is a tall order, hence we can assume that the report must be well researched and credible.  It concluded that it is not advisable to invest public funds in gold & silver because:-

1. There’s escalating market speculation
2. Current value (I think they mean price) is too high
3. Market possibly in a bubble
4. South Carolina Code of Laws states that the Treasurer has “ full power to invest” in  debt instruments of the US government and corporations, but makes no mention of investments in derivatives of gold & silver. Hence investing in gold & silver derivatives may “create a legal conflict”

While the timestamp of the document was 27 Feb 2012, it can be assumed that the report was prepared soon after the end of September 23, 2011 due to this inclusion. From the perspective of a short term investment, that was a pretty good call, considering the fact that gold and silver have been taken down to $1624 and $31.40 respectively as I write.

However, this piece is not about how good the Treasurer’s Office was at making an investment call based on price. Neither is it about whether gold & silver is in a bubble. These conclusions (2) & (3) are opinions of the Treasurer’s Office, which are subjective. Of greater interest are the facts revealed in the body of the report.

Regular readers of this blog would have noticed that there are several key issues that are repeatedly discussed or highlighted here (through news feeds or third party contributions). They include:-

1. Gold & silver prices are being suppressed
2. Central Banks & major bullion banks are suppressing their prices
3. Naked short selling is one of the price suppression mechanism
4. Bullion Banks and exchanges practice fractional reserve bullion banking
5. Stay out of gold or silver bank accounts, ETFs, Certificates, and all forms of derivatives
6. The safest way to own gold & silver is to hold physical gold & silver

Items (1) to (4) are often disputed by the mainstream media and investors, sometimes referring to them as conspiracy theories. Hence, it is most interesting to see what this government published report has to say about these 6 issues.

Price Suppression is Real

In one short paragraph, this report confirms in no uncertain terms the truth behind the so called “conspiracy theories”. Not only does it confirm the existence of price suppression, it discloses the WHOs and the HOWs!

Risks of holding gold through ETFs, Certificates, Bank Accounts & other Derivatives

It has been repeatedly emphasized here that the only secure means of owning gold & silver is by holding physical coins and bars in your own possession or stored in a private vault outside the banking system. Anything else is a derivative - a paper or electronic representation of the real thing.

This report explains the nature of these derivatives and lists the risks associated with each, together with reasons why the Treasury’s Office advised against investing in them.

The full report in pdf is available for download at the South Carolina Treasurer’s website. Text from relevant sections is reproduced below with comments related to the 6 items above highlighted. Most of the remarks are self explanatory. There are, however, two groups of comments that warrant some discussion.

1. Allocated & Unallocated Accounts

Ways to Invest: Certificates
Unallocated gold certiñcates are a form of fractional reserve banking and do not guarantee an equal exchange for metal in the event of a run on the bank’s gold on deposit. Allocated gold certificates should be correlated with speciñc numbered bars, however it is difficult to prove whether a bank is improperly allocating a single bar to more than one investor.

Ways to Invest: Accounts
One of the most important differences between accounts is whether the gold is held on an allocated or unallocated basis. Another major difference is the strength of the account holder’s claim on the gold, in the event that the account administrator faces gold-denominated liabilities, asset forfeiture, or bankruptcy.

The above describes two products offered by banks to clients who want to invest in gold (or silver) without having to deal with the physical metals. For example, when a bank accepts $2,000 from a customer and issues a gold certificate or credits the customer’s gold account under the unallocated system, the bank is not obliged to buy and store 1.2 oz (at current price) of gold on behalf of the customer. It holds only a tiny portion of that amount in gold. Hence when many of its the customers decide to redeem their certificates at the same time, the bank will not have sufficient gold to deliver. This is what’s referred to as a “run on the bank’s gold on deposit”. The same applies when depositing cash in your bank. The practice of keeping only a tiny fraction of what’s rightfully belonging to the customers (gold or cash) is referred to as fractional reserve banking.

When selling allocated gold products, the bank is legally required to hold 100% of the customers deposit in physical metal. For example, if a customer deposits sufficient cash to own a 400 oz gold bar and is assigned a bar bearing serial No: AGR Matthey 156571, how can one be sure that the same bar or a portion thereof is not assigned to another customer at the same time? That’s the issue raised by the report - and the risk is real.

This brings us back to “the only secure means of owning gold & silver is by holding physical coins and bars in your own possession or stored in a private vault outside the banking system”. If you have to use a third party to store your metals, use specialized private vaults instead, because banks operate on a fractional reserve banking system.

There are many companies outside the banking system that offer secure vaulting services. Generally, they have very high transparency, including publishing audited client holdings on the web for public scrutiny (without any login required). Of course clients’ ID are anonymous, and known only to the operator and the client.

Try these links:
GoldMoney bar list and BullionVault client holdings. Their reviews can be found here.

Learn more about private vaulting services, including issues like ownership, custody, bailment, counter-party risks, and performance risks. 

2. Reason for not investing in physical gold & silver

The report listed 5 ways to invest in gold & silver - ETPs, Certificates, Accounts, Derivatives and physical coins & bars. Notice how it highlights & explains all the risks associated with ETPs, Certificates, Accounts and Derivatives and the reasons why it is not advisable for the Treasury to invest in these.

Notice also that there are NO risk associated with physical metals. The only reason given for not investing in coins and bars is “South Carolina does not have the capacity to store or funding to secure gold and silver bullion”.

What a lame excuse! Do they not know that in April last year, “The University of Texas Investment Management Co., the second-largest U.S. academic endowment, took delivery of almost $1 billion in gold bullion“?

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Proviso 89.145 GP:
Gold & Silver Investments
Office of State Treasurer

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GOLD AND SILVER AS AN INVESTMENT:
Historically, investors have purchased gold as a hedge against an economic, a political, or a currency crisis. A decline in investment markets, a growing national debt, a weak currency, increasing inflation, military conflicts and social unrest are the most common reasons for investment in gold. Currently, gold and silver are at historic highs leading many expert investors to conclude that a bubble has been created in the precious metals market. Since the US recession began, the value of gold and silver has increased as investment markets perform poorly, troublesome economic news is announced, and when uncertainty in international markets intensifies.

Similar to other commodities, the value of gold and silver is determined by supply and demand, as well as speculation. The Federal Reserve, The London Bullion Market Association, JP Morgan Chase, and HSBC Holdings have practiced fractional-reserve banking and engaged in naked short selling causing artiñcial price suppression.

There are several ways to invest in gold and silver: bars, coins, ETP’s, certificates, accounts, and derivatives. If a state were to choose to invest in gold (and silver), it would likely choose to invest by:

1. ETP’s-Exchange Traded Products. This allows the stakeholder to invest in bullion without having to store bars and coins. The ñrst gold ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) was created in 2003 and has been viewed largely as a success, but has also been compared to investing in mortgagebacked securities. The annual expenses of the fund (storage, insurance, and management fees) are charged by selling a small amount of gold represented by each certificate, so the amount of gold in each certificate will gradually decline over time. ETF’s are investment companies that are legally classified as open-end companies or Unit Investment Trusts (UIT), but differ from traditional open-end companies and U]T’s. The main differences are that ETF’s do not sell directly to investors and they issue their shares in what are called Creation Units. Also, the Creation Units may not be purchased with cash but a basket of securities that mirrors the ETF‘s portfolio. The Usually, the Creation Units are split up and re-sold on a secondary market.

2. Certificates- allow investors to avoid the risks and costs associated with the transfer and storage of bullion by taking on a set of risks and costs associated with the certificate itself. Banks may issue gold certificates for gold which is allocated (non-fungible) or unallocated (fungible). Unallocated gold certiñcates are a form of fractional reserve banking and do not guarantee an equal exchange for metal in the event of a run on the bank’s gold on deposit. Allocated gold certificates should be correlated with speciñc numbered bars, however it is difficult to prove whether a bank is improperly allocating a single bar to more than one investor. The US ñrst authorized the use of gold certificates in 1863. By the early l930’s the US placed restrictions on private gold ownership and therefore, the gold certificates stopped circulating as money, but certificates are still issued by gold pool programs for investment purposes.

3. Accounts- Many banks offer gold accounts where gold can be instantly bought or sold just like any foreign currency on a fractional reserve (non-allocated, fungible) basis. Pool accounts, facilitate highly liquid, but unallocated claims on gold owned by the company. Digital gold currency systems operate like pool accounts and additionally allow the direct transfer of fungible gold between members of the service. Different accounts impose varying types of intermediation between the client and their gold. One of the most important differences between accounts is whether the gold is held on an allocated or unallocated basis. Another major difference is the strength of the account holder’s claim on the gold, in the event that the account administrator faces gold-denominated liabilities, asset forfeiture, or bankruptcy.

4. Derivatives- The product symbol for gold futures is GC, and it is traded in a standard contract
size of 100 troy ounces. In the US, gold futures are primarily traded on the New York Commodities Exchange (COMEX). As of 2009 holders of COMEX gold futures have experienced problems taking delivery of their metal. Along with chronic delivery delays, some investors have received delivery of bars not matching their contract in serial number and weight. Because of these problems, there are concerns that COMEX may not have the gold inventory to back its existing warehouse receipts.

ADVISABILITY:
There is no statute preventing the State from investing in gold and silver. The various methods of investment in gold and silver each carry different and often significant risks, the foremost being speculation. As the US has experienced the recent bursts in the housing and tech bubbles, it is important to take caution when contemplating an unconventional investment. Taxpayer money (state funds and state pension) across the US has not typically been used to invest in gold or silver bullion.

Recently, with the uncertainty in global markets, the devaluation of the dollar, rising inflation, and a flat US economy, there has been a renewed interest in either moving back to a gold standard, investing in gold or both. The value of gold and silver has significantly increased in the last decade, meaning it would cost a great deal to invest at this time.

Risks:
1. Bars and coins- South Carolina does not have the capacity to store or funding to secure gold and silver bullion. For these reasons the State Treasurer’s Office does not advise investing in gold and silver bars and coins.

2. ETP’s- The armual expenses and costs associated with this type of investment are high. In recent years there have been issues surrounding gold ETP’s. The purchase price provides the investor with a fluctuating amount (in weight) of the metal. Over time, as value increases and more investors participate in the fund, the amount of metal owner by the investor decreases. ETP’s can also be split and sold on the secondary market. For these reasons the State Treasurer’s Ofñce does not advise investing in ETP’s for gold and silver.

3. Certificates- Certificates for allocated gold present an accountability problem. Allocated gold certificates are supposed to be correlated with speciñc numbered bars; however, it is difficult to verify whether a bank is improperly allocating a single bar to more than one investor. Also, unallocated gold certificates are a form of fractional reserve banking and do not guarantee an equal exchange for metal in the event of a run on the bank’s gold on deposit. This is in conflict with S.C. Code of Laws 1976 SECTION 11-9-660. For these reasons, the State Treasurer’s Office cannot advise investing in gold and silver certificates.

4. Accounts- Similar to the risks associated with gold and silver certificates, allocated and unallocated metals held in accounts produce similar accountability problems. The strength of the account holder’s claim on metals is subject to the account administrators liabilities, assets, and/or solvency. Per S.C. Code of Laws 1976 SECTION 11-9-660, the State Treasurer’s Office cannot advise investing in gold and silver accounts.

5. Derivatives- Over the last three years, gold futures traded on the New York Commodities Exchange (COMEX) have encountered significant accountability problems. Holders of COMEX gold ñltures have frequently experienced delivery delays of their metals. Once delivered, there have been many reports of inaccurate weights and serial numbers on bars that do not match the holder’s contract. For these reasons the State Treasurer’s Office does not advise investing in gold and silver derivatives.

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Having read the above, it may now be easier to make sense of the sharp price decline for both gold & silver over the past 2 days. Lets now ask some questions. Was the price action due to:

• Market forces or Price Suppression in action?
• Falling Demand or Naked Short Selling?
• Human Traders or High Frequency Traders (HFTs)?

Historically, investors have purchased gold as a hedge against an economic, a political, or a currency crisis. A decline in investment markets, a growing national debt, a weak currency, increasing inflation, military conflicts and social unrest are the most common reasons for investment in gold

Recently, with the uncertainty in global markets, the devaluation of the dollar, rising inflation, and a flat US economy, there has been a renewed interest in either moving back to a gold standard, investing in gold or both.

The mainstream media attributed this week’s sharp price decline to  improving economy, low inflation and no imminent QE announcements following the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes. Given that the above statement was published just 5 weeks before the FOMC minutes, who is lying?

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Developing Stories

12 Apr:
Jason Hommel explains what Blythe Masters actually meant by “the underlying client position that we’re hedging”.

11 Apr:
Ted Butler, the pioneer of silver manipulation investigation finally broke his silence over the Blythe Masters denial video clip. By far, this is THE best, most level-headed, objective rebuttal to Masters’ famous words that they are “not running a large directional position”. Read “JPM’s TV appearance” posted at Silverseek.com.

10 Apr: 

• ZeroHedge’s take on Blythe Masters denial of JPM’s role in price manipulation
• Keiser Report on the same subject. His solution is the Silver Liberation Army (SLA)

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7 Apr:
Mike Maloney on RT discussing gold & silver manipulation, Blythe Masters denial of JPM’s role in price manipulation, “First government admission of price suppression” & High Frequency Sheering. Must Watch!

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6 Apr: 

• JP Morgan and HSBC control over 97% of all of the gold derivatives, according to KWN’s “London Trader - Fed’s Global War Against Gold Escalating”
• GATA: “One of the Masters’ of the universe gets a market manipulation question on CNBC“

Further Reading:

• Storage Options, Bailment, Allocated & Unallocated Accounts Explained
• Gold Manipulation
• Silver Manipulation

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Shortly after BuySilverMalaysia.com launched its webstore on Feb 2, I learnt from its proprietor that he has received numerous emails asking if he would offer buyback as part of the service. “It seems like Malaysians’ concern is about selling back their silver”, he lamented. You’ll notice that it is one of only two dealers amongst those reviewed here without a buyback service.

This is one of the tell-tale signs that many Malaysians who have recently caught wind of the gold & silver story are erroneously looking at gold & silver as speculative investments. They are interested in making a quick buck by buying these metals with the hope of selling them back to their dealers when prices move up in short order. Some are even excited about gold or silver savings accounts offered by various banks and are happy to invest in paper gold or silver. To get an idea of the general sentiment, check out some lively threads at the Lowyat forum (start here, here or here).

Meanwhile, over in the US, it has been reported that bullion dealers who’ve been serving their customers for decades see very little buybacks. Their long term customers have been accumulating these metals, buying when prices are rising and buying even more when there’s a price dip. How is that so?

In a recent interview by SGTreport, Andy Hoffman of Miles Franklin said:

There are no buy-backs. Customers are not selling anything. They haven’t been selling any gold & silver back to Miles Franklin or any of our competitors for years, and they’re never going to. So don’t ever ever think that when you see a big smash in gold or silver that it’s people selling. It has nothing to do with it. It is the gold cartel naked shorting paper, and it’s only a matter of time before they completely and uterly are destroyed as they were in 1968 with the London Gold Pool, and as they have been every single time in history when they attempt to subvert the forces of real money with paper.

You’re not even investing, you’re just owning real money… and you’re doing it for defense. We’re here to protect ourselves.

People should not think of silver & gold as investments. They are savings.

There you have it. They buy gold & silver for different reasons. Not for speculation. Not even as an investment. They buy whenever they wanted to convert their savings from one form of money into another. It is like someone having more confidence in the SGD than RM looking for opportunities to buy more SGD whenever exchange rates are favorable. They buy and hold gold and silver as savings because they know that these monetary metals store value (retain purchasing power) much better than paper currencies. Most importantly, they own gold & silver fully aware that these are political metals, whose prices are actively managed or manipulated by central banks.

[Note: It may appear from the paragraph above that Americans are astute investors or savers. Far from it. Retail ownership of gold & silver on a per capita basis is much higher in India and many Asian countries than in the US. The "they" refers to a very tiny group of well informed Americans who understand gold & silver for what they are.]

For a better understanding of the issues discussed above, listen to SGTreport’s interview with Andy Hoffman discussing a range of topics including Price Manipulation using High Frequency Trading (HFT), Quantifiable Criminality, Exponentially off-the-chart Methods of Attacking, Silver Subsidies, Gold Silver Ratio (GSR), and more.
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Part 1

Part 2

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Further Reading:

• Difference between Investing and Holding gold & silver
• Introduction to gold price manipulation
• Introduction to silver price manipulation

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Jim Puplava, president of FPS, discusses the hot topic of Silver Manipulation with four prominent players in the silver market.

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Source: Financial Sense Newshour

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Today, gold & silver gave up another 2% & 3.4% respectively, bringing the plunge from their Wednesday’s intraday highs to 7% & 14% respectively. That’s over 4 trading days. The volatility in both directions is obvious as shown in this  2-year silver daily chart. The gold chart is no different.

Let’s take a closer look at what the price actions for both metals were like in the more distant past and what to expect over the coming months. Reproduced below is an analysis of daily price volatility by Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst, Casey Research.

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This Is What Volatility Looks Like

Last Wednesday, February 29, gold dropped 4.8% and silver 6.2% (based on London fix prices). That’s quite the fall for one day. We’ve seen prices that have risen that much, too. But as I’m about to show, these ain’t nothin’, baby.

Based on our experience, we’ve been saying for some time that volatility will increase as the markets fight their way to the mania phase of this cycle - and that once there, the gyrations will jump even higher. This call doesn’t exactly require one to go out on a limb; it makes sense since more investors will be crowding in - and volatility was high in the 1979-’80 mania.

First, let’s put last Wednesday’s big plunge in perspective. Here’s a picture of the daily changes in the gold price since 2003, based on London fix prices. (This chart is very busy, but I want to show the bulk of the bull market in one visual.)

(Click on image to enlarge)

A 4.8% decline is one of gold’s bigger one-day movements over the past nine-plus years. But as you can see, there have been a number of days where gold rose or fell more than 5%. And it exceeded 6% on five occasions.

Here are the data for silver.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Last Wednesday’s decline of 6.2% was one of the metal’s bigger one-day movements. However, it’s exceeded 10% on 14 occasions, 15% three times, and rose an incredible 20.06% on September 18, 2008.

You might think this kind of volatility is high - and it’s true. Worse - or better, depending on how you see things - the volatility in the underlying commodity is magnified in the related company stocks. This is why Doug Casey calls mining stocks, especially the juniors, “the most volatile stocks on earth.” But the thing is, metals volatility has been higher in the past, particularly during a mania.

Here’s what I mean.

The following chart documents gold’s daily price changes from 1976 through the end of 1980. Take a look at the jump in volatility in 1979-’80.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Volatility became the norm in 1979 and especially 1980. Fluctuations of 4% or more were not uncommon.

Here’s the same chart for silver. The metal’s volatility during the 1979-’80 period became extreme.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Daily price movements of 6% or more didn’t occur once prior to 1979 - but then they became commonplace.

I wanted to take a closer look at the biggest price fluctuations during this period, so I ferreted out the largest days of volatility for each metal. For gold, I selected daily movements of greater than 5%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

During this five-year period, gold saw fluctuations greater than 5% on 38 days (19 up, 19 down). Not surprisingly, more “up” days occurred leading up to gold’s peak of January 21, 1980, and more down days came after it.

And yes, gold rose an incredible 13.3% on January 3, 1980. As it turned out, that biggest one-day rise was only 18 calendar days away from the very peak of the market. And the biggest decline of 13.2% on January 22, 1980 was the signal that the top was in.

For silver, I used one-day movements of 10% or more, all of which occurred in 1979 and 1980.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The silver price had fluctuations of 10% or more on 34 days (17 up, 17 down). They occurred over a period of only 15 months, an average of more than two per month.

And yes, silver really did rise a whopping 36.5% on September 18, 1979.

So while last Wednesday’s price movements for gold and silver were big, we simply haven’t seen this kind of volatility in our current bull market.

Now let’s have some fun. Let’s say we match the most volatile days from 1979-’80 at some point before the current bull market is over. If we use gold’s biggest up day (13.3%) and biggest down day (13.2%), here’s what would happen to prices from various levels. Remember, these areone-day gains and retreats:

Imagine gold jumping from $1,800 to $2,039.40 in one day!

However, unless you think $1,800 is the level from which the mania starts, it’s more likely we’d see a 13.3% advance (or something similar) from a higher starting point. We’d thus probably see gold jumping to $5,665 from $5,000, for example. And further, that would probably signal we’re near the top.

Keep in mind that volatility worked both ways during the mania, so dropping from $4,000 to $3,472 or something similar is likely to occur as well.

Here’s the same table for silver, with its biggest up day of 36.5% and down day of 18.5%.

Can you imagine silver starting the day at $80 and hitting $109.20 before you go to bed that night? Something like that will probably happen at least once before this bull market is over. As with gold, though, that kind of movement is more likely to take place from a higher level, such as $100 or $125 (or higher?). And a fall like $100 to $81.50 will probably be part of the trend as well.

There are some definite conclusions we can draw from the historical picture:

• First, if history repeats, or even rhymes, our biggest days of volatility are ahead. And they will be normal.
• Second, big price fluctuations will be common as we enter the mania and approach the peak. In fact, when large daily movements become the norm, the historical record suggests we will be nearing the end of the cycle.
• Third, since current volatility has thus far been lower than what was experienced during the final phase of the 1970s bull market, we are probably not in a bubble, nor yet in the mania phase, and nowhere near the top. Remember that the next time you hear some nincompoop spew bubble talk on CNBC.

What can an investor do with this information? Prepare yourself for bigger daily swings - in both directions. And buying on those outsized drops is probably a good strategy…

Because we now know what volatility looks like.

Marc Faber | Photo: LNS

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In a recent interview with The Gold Report, Marc Faber - an economist & publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report shared his views on a wide range of topics. Republished below is an extract of his interview covering gold & silver. He opines that gold is in a bull market and that the corrections seen in gold may not be over yet.

The Gold Report: What captures the imagination of investors?

Marc Faber: Basically mania fed by excessive liquidity, with more and more people convinced that something is the Holy Grail. It was the NASDAQ in 2000, Asia before 1997, housing from 2000 to 2006–2007, or more recently China. Exactly what it is, I don’t know. But when a market has been strong, the media write about it and people are attracted to it. Then some useless academics write books about why stocks, or real estate, always go up, and so forth. The media again write that up, and more people flow into that sector.

TGR: A couple of weeks ago James Turk told us that he thinks the low price for gold in 2012 was already established early in January. What makes you think it will pull back?

MF: The big rally into Sept. 6, 2011, took the gold price to $1,922/ounce (oz) and then it dropped until the end of the year, touching $1,522/oz on Dec. 29. It has rallied, and is now above $1,700 again, but I don’t think the correction is entirely over. Corrections of 40% are nothing unusual in a bull market.

As an adviser, my duty is to always inform people of investment risk. I’m not saying I expect gold to collapse, but telling people the gold price will go up leads them to leverage up and speculate. If the gold price drops $50/oz, they’re wiped out. All I’m saying is that, in my opinion, the gold price correction is not yet entirely completed. I see significant support around the $1,500/oz level, but it could drop lower. It depends on global liquidity and on money printing by central banks. We could have a big correction if global liquidity tightens or they stop printing money.

TGR: Over what timeframe are you looking at the correction?

MF: This year the gold price may not exceed the $1,922/oz high that we reached on Sept. 6. Maybe it will. I’m not a prophet. I’m just telling people that I’m buying gold and holding it. I don’t speculate in gold. If you buy gold, you better understand that the price could always move to the downside. If you don’t understand that, don’t invest in gold—or in anything.

TGR: Investment show commentators have been talking about gold being in one of those mania bubbles you described because it’s been increasing for 11–12 years. Do you agree?

MF: No, gold is not in a bubble. It wasn’t in a bubble in 1973, either, but it still corrected by 40% then. I don’t believe gold is anywhere near a bubble phase. A bubble phase is characterized by the majority of market participants being involved in a market space. I saw a gold bubble in 1979–1980, when the whole world was dealing—buying and selling gold 24-hours a day, globally.

TGR: But not since then?

MF: No. If you went to an investment conference in 1989, 90% of the people there would have told you they owned shares in Japanese companies. In 2000, 90% of them would have said they owned NASDAQ shares. Only about 5% of the participants at an investment conference today would tell you they own gold. Very few people in this world own gold.

I don’t believe that we’re in a bubble.

TGR: Should people who aren’t yet in gold or want to add to their position wait for a correction?

MF: I have argued for the last 12 years that investors should buy a little bit of physical gold every month and put it aside without concerns about corrections. If you don’t own any gold, I would start buying some right away, keeping in mind that it could go down.

For the last 40 years in my business I’ve seen people always lose money when they put too much money into something and then it goes down. They panic and sell, or they have a margin call to sell—and lose money. I own gold. It’s my biggest position in my life. The possibility of the gold price going down doesn’t disturb me. Every bull market has corrections.

TGR: What do you think about silver as an alternative precious metal to hold?

MF: Gold and silver will move in the same direction, up together or down together. At times, silver will be stronger relative to gold, and at other times gold will be stronger relative to silver. My friend Eric Sprott thinks that silver will go ballistic. I don’t know. I own gold.

TGR: You’re on record as recommending that investors maintain diversified portfolios, with 20% to 30% each in gold, real estate, equities and cash. Focusing on equities, as we’ve discussed, means tremendous volatility. What are your thoughts? High value? Large cap? Dividends? Something more speculative, perhaps gold mining shares?

MF: Because I live in Asia, I am quite familiar with the Asian markets and economies. I have a bias toward Asian equities, especially because I can find deals in places such as Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore and Hong Kong—stocks that give me 4–7% dividend yields. With yields at those levels, at least I’m paid to wait. Even if they’re cut 5%, I’d still get better cash flow than I would from, say, U.S. government bonds. Consequently, I feel reasonably confident owning such shares.

Because I have allocated only 25% of my portfolio to equities, if the markets were to drop 50%, I would have funds elsewhere in my portfolio to buy more equities. That’s not a prediction for a 50% market decline; it’s just to say that I’m positioned in such a way that I could put more money in equities through a) my cash flow, b) my income and c) my cash position. And I do own some gold shares through stock options, because I’m a director of several exploration companies.

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Read the full interview covering his investment views on bonds, stocks and real estate at The Gold Report.

Pan Asia Gold Exchange (PAGE) building in Kunming City, Yunnan, China

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The much awaited China-based Pan Asia Gold Exchange (PAGE) was scheduled to start trading this June after a ‘soft’ launch at the end of 2011. This exchange that could potentially bring down the Ponzi bullion banking system has been killed before it could see the light of day, according to recent disclosures by Ned Naylor-Leyland and London whistleblower Andrew Maguire.

So “dangerous” was this exchange to the status quo that it faced interference from “a New York based entity with very strong Chinese relationships” soon after the much publicized soft launch. Another factor that helped derail PAGE was the People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) announcement about control over domestic Gold trading outside of Shanghai.

Before we go into the details of this news, let’s revisit why PAGE managed to send chills down the spine of the powers that be. Consider the following:-

• Currently the prices of gold & silver bullion you pay at your favorite bullion dealers are pegged to or based on the prices of gold & silver contracts transacted at the COMEX in NY and the LBMA in London.

• These contracts are merely paper or electronic representations of gold & silver with little or no physical metals actually changing hands. They are highly leveraged, with approximately 100 oz of paper gold contracts backed by 1 oz of physical gold. For silver, the ratio is about 350:1

• A very very small number of bullion banks (2 to 4) control up to 95% of these paper contracts, and hence are able to influence the price of physical bullion. As ridiculous as it sounds, this is the current price discovery mechanism - virtual paper metals setting the price for physical metals or the classic “tail wagging the dog” mechanism.

• These contracts are denominated in USD.

When such a potential game changer was being conceived, something had to be done, and sure they did. In his recently published research notes “P.A.G.E. Squashed: And now for something completely different…“, Ned Naylor-Leyland of Cheviot Asset Management explains how PAGE was killed.

Just after the publicized ‘soft launch’ (with Central government mandarins in attendance) and the noise made on the internet about its implications, the one shareholder in PAGE that had a foreign listing (in the US) suddenly and stealthily increased its share-holding from 10% to 25%, acquiring additional board directors along the way. The rationale for this sudden change in the weighting of shareholders is shrouded in mystery, however what we do know is that this entity then insisted that they be allowed to build the trading platforms for PAGE from the ground up, rather than buying a working platform off the shelf to get PAGE operational in a timely manner.

This blocking tactic at board level effectively stopped the progress of the fully-allocated spot contract in its tracks, and it was immediately clear to the international-facing people that something fundamental had changed internally. Interestingly, the key Independent Director of this small listed entity that blocked the timely roll-out of PAGE is a well-known Western banker within China, whose CV includes work for the Federal Trade Commission, the Sloan Foundation (related to MIT) and his wife is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

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London whistleblower Andrew Maguire told King World News:

I’d like to briefly remind King World News listeners just what PAGE (the Pan Asian Gold Exchange) was going to be.  This was going to be a Chinese Exchange that was to completely change the way gold and silver trade globally.

If you recall from our previous interview, it posed an immediate threat to the current fractional reserve bullion banking system.  It was the competition of a brand new fully allocated gold and silver contract being pitched up against unbacked paper contracts.  It’s not a stretch to imagine what a threat these contracts posed to the bullion banks.

The whole thing was killed and we recently found out how PAGE was interfered with.  Within hours of our King World News interview last July, I mean you sure get some hits on your show, Eric, the interference stemmed out of a New York based entity with very strong Chinese relationships.  It delayed it enough to kill it and it was killed.

All is not lost. The people originally behind PAGE have begun work on developing another independent exchange which is more streamlined and better funded, focusing on 1:1 silver contracts to bypass the new PBoC ruling on gold. According to Ned, it is expected to go ‘live’ this summer (northern). Let’s give the bullion banks a few more months!

The aforementioned change in domestic Chinese rules mean that along with every other regional Precious Metals exchange, the new unnamed 1:1 allocated exchange is launching with Silver initially, which of course is the Achilles Heel of the Bullion banking system. This in my opinion is far more bullish and exciting short and medium-term than the Gold contract would have been, as the physical Silver market is so tight.

Furthermore, all the regional exchanges mothballed by the PBoC rule change can switch, and are switching to Silver trading which is not covered by the change in rules. The contract itself will be, as before, an international rolling 90 day spot one, denominated in RMB, and the new entity is supported by the same serious players within the Chinese political and military establishment as before. The physical will be acquired ahead of closing each monthly tranche and will be vaulted entirely outside of the Bullion Banks (i.e. private vaulting facilities). From there the allocated receipts will be recorded on an electronic register and the issue will be tradeable in the secondary market with the register adjusted real-time.

This is extremely good news for holders of real Silver and extremely bad news for holders of fake paper Silver who rely on the 350:1 leverage being maintained as the world’s sole price discovery mechanism for large purchases of the white metal. This effectively will be like dealing in an RMB-denominated and fully allocated version of some of the popular Silver Bullion Trusts, but rather than trading at a premium, the premium will price the issue ahead of purchase, affecting global price discovery, as previously mooted.

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Read the rest of Ned’s report at TFMetalsReport.com. There also an podcast of Ned’s interview with Turd Ferguson on the same page. Listen to Andrew Maguire’s interview with Eric of KingWorldNews here.

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