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2012

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According to the London Bullion Market Association’s (LBMA) 2012 analysts survey, the average gold forecast is US$1,766, a 10.2% increase compared to the price in the first week of January 2012. Their corresponding average forecast price for silver is US$33.98, a 17.3%.

LBMA has been conducting this survey since 2001. The history of their forecast accuracy (for gold) is represented in the chart below:

Charts source: LBMA 2012 Forecast

While the analysts have been consistently accurate at predicting the direction of gold price, they have grossly underestimated the magnitude of increase, especially since the 2008 global financial crisis. It will be interesting to see how their average forecast perform this year.

Edel Tully of UBS was the most accurate forecaster of the LBMA 2011 survey. Her predictions for gold & silver has been singled out and tracked in the 06Jan entry below. As the LBMA survey covers mainly the mainstream analysts, forecasts from other industry gurus will be tracked in the table below as they come in throughout the year.

A   or  will be awarded for accuracy at the end of the forecast period. Mouse over the icon for comments.

[Note: It is not my objective to feature the most accurate forecasts in this table. Rather, this is a catalogue of predictions by analysts from both sides of the camp over time. The history of their predictions may help you gauge and identify the more credible analysts. Bear in mind that in a managed/manipulated market short term prices actions are often counter-intuitive, making forecasting even more challenging.]

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2012	Analyst	Forecast	Accuracy
06Apr	John Embry	Downside ($1600) Upside (Thousands)
04Apr	Edel Tully	Gold down to $1550 other the next month
04Apr	Dennis Gartman	10-year gold bull run is over!
03Apr	Franklin Sanders	Gold & Silver bottomed last week
03Feb	Marc Faber	Gold may not exceed $1922 this year
24Feb	Egon Greyerz	Silver above $50 (by end of March)
24Feb	Egon Greyerz	Gold above $2,000 (by end March)
17Feb	Egon Greyerz	Gold moves higher next week
12Feb	David Morgan	Silver $60 (by end 2012)
01Feb	Forsyth Barr	Gold $1800 (by Apr 2012)
31Jan	Stephen Leeb	Silver $100 (not too distant future, 2012)
19Jan	Jim Sinclair	Gold $2,100 (in 2012)
06Jan	Edel Tully	Silver high $50 (in 2012)
06Jan	Edel Tully	Gold high $2,500 (in 2012)
2011	Analyst	Forecast	Accuracy
14Dec	Dennis Gartman	Gold bull market over
17Nov	Lindsey Williams	USD will be “dead” by end of 2012
11Oct	Gerald Celente	Total global financial collapse (open)
11Oct	Robin Griffiths	Gold $2,000 (Dec 2011)
06Sep	Ben Davis	Gold $2,100 (Sep 2011)
06Sep	Ben Davis	Silver mid $60′s by next quarter (Dec 2011)
30Aug	UBS	Gold $1,950 (Sep 2011), $2,100 (Dec 2011)
30Aug	JPMorgan	Gold $2,500 (Dec 2011)
15Aug	Jim Rickards	USA will revalue gold to $7,000 (open)

>> Older forecasts at Two Sides of a Coin