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JPM, Facebook, Gold … And The Potential of A Titanic Financial Market Event

May 22, 2012 Leave a comment

Bill Murphy | LeMetropoleCafe

“The way I see it, if you want the rainbow, you gotta put up with the rain.” … Dolly Parton

GO GATA!!!

The reason for this rare, extra commentary over a weekend is to focus on a couple of points which really stand out in their particular significance and are worth pondering in terms of what is coming down the road for financial markets.

The first is what we jumped all over on PLANET GATA from the get-go about the JP Morgan hedge trade flap gone wrong. It made NO sense from the very beginning to any of us that such a commotion was made over a $2 billion loss on a trade, for whatever reason, when they had just reported yearly gains of $18 billion. Clearly, Mr. Dimon’s public pronouncement, that caught the attention of the entire investment world, was only paving the way for future announcements that will be much more dramatic. All he was doing when he inferred the losses MIGHT get worse was protecting himself, as best he could, by going on the record.

The latest news on JPM…

14:31 JPM JP Morgan Chase struggling to unwind ill-placed bets – WSJ

While breaking no real news, this story notes that the bank’s losses could eventually prove to be even bigger than the $5B some people familiar with the matter have been predicting (see linked comment). The losses could potentially deepen if the company sells its positions into a market that has turned against said positions.
The article notes that while the bank has said that it will take its time unwinding the positions, this does not necessarily guarantee smaller final losses than trying to close out the trades sooner, as the market could turn sharply against the bank in the near term. 
Reference Link: Wall Street Journal 

14:50 JPM CFTC latest federal agency to begin investigating JPMorgan Chase – NYT DealBook

NYT Dealbook reports, citing people briefed on the matter, that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission opened an enforcement case on Friday examining the bank’s trading loss. The CFTC joins the SEC and FBI in investigating possible wrongdoing at the bank. Gary Gensler, the agency’s chairman, is expected to disclose the investigation when he testifies on Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee.
Dealbook says that the CFTC will potentially examine whether the bank’s trading affected the market for credit derivatives, for which it has jurisdiction.
Reference Link: NY Times

This latest investigation into JP Morgan might be a big deal for the GATA camp. This is actually quite complicated, but very intriguing. The CFTC has been investigating JPM’s role in the silver market manipulation scheme for what will be four years soon. FOUR YEARS! Good friends, like Dave from Denver, have nothing but loathsome talk about the CFTC, for good reason. GATA’s rationale (speaking for myself) about this ridiculous investigation is that the CFTC really has uncovered the scam, but because it is backed by the US Government, they are flabbergasted about what to do, so they do nothing.

The reason they have not closed the case is because they are petrified the silver market might blow up down the road. Think about if you were them. They want this to go away, but if the silver market does blow up, and there is some kind of “Force Majeure” declared in silver by JPM, the CFTC would not only look like fools, but, perhaps it might be said they were more than negligent. Thus, they have done nothing.

Well, all of a sudden, Lo and Behold a new factor enters the silver scam investigation, which directly affects Morgan’s constant claims to the CFTC that their huge silver short position is hedged. Ya mean like hedged in an economic sense as per their claims re the latest credit derivatives market trade was a hedge? This just might force the CFTC to demand JP Morgan prove their claims their silver short position is really a hedged one. This is what I suspect might occur due to the growing scrutiny over Morgan’s trading activities. The CFTC people, except for Bart “Elliot Ness” Chilton, are sycophants and have toed the company line … but there is a point when FEAR makes that no longer viable. They are not going to go to jail for taking one for the team. My guess is we are getting close to that Tipping Point.

As the JP Morgan hedged losses mount and become “official,” the heat on them is going to mount. They will be scrutinized every way imaginable. How can all the class action lawsuits against them, and blatant evidence against them via just what Andrew Maquire has sent to the CFTC via their role in the silver scam, be ignored?

We have already been informed, as of a week ago, that the Morgan losses on their “hedge trade” fiasco could be as high as $15 billion, or more. Already, even the WSJ is alluding that their losses are higher than $5 billion. This is MEGA! As we have discussed on PLANET GATA, this is not just about Morgan, but confidence in the entire financial system. If the $70 trillion derivatives book at Morgan goes NUCLEAR, we could have a financial market TITANIC event which might be right around the corner.

GOOD GRIEF!

Now, for the weekend edition, number two re the understandable, but nauseating, commotion over the Facebook IPO on Friday, which was heralded by CNBC all week.

First, the background…

*The Dow is going down day after day, not with any fanfare, but all rallies are sold. In very quiet and subdued selling, general investors inherently know something is wrong and are acting upon that instinct.

*Europe is falling apart we know, but little is being said about how the US financial system is in parallel with Europe. How bad is this? Just the state of California budget deficit goes from something like $8 billion to a staggering $16 billion and it creates almost no commotion. Huh?

Getting back into the GATA aspect of this is that the US financial markets are all about market manipulation. You need to go nowhere further on what the real deal about US financial markets than this headline…

Banks spend big to prop up Facebook shares on first day of trading
By GARETT SLOANE and MARK DECAMBRE
Last Updated: 8:15 AM, May 19, 2012
Posted: 11:34 PM, May 18, 2012

It was another Wall Street bailout — but this time the banks had to cough up the cash. Facebook’s underwriters propped up the social-network’s trading debut yesterday, as the shares threatened to crash through the initial public offering price of $38. The banks working on the massive $16 billion IPO, including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, did their duty by buying up large blocks of Facebook stock toward the end of the day to support the price.

Facebook shares opened up 11 percent at $42.05, and traded as high as $45, before running out of steam, disappointing investors hoping for a big first-day pop. The shares closed up just 0.6 percent at $38.23.

Without the bank bailout, Facebook’s IPO would have been a loser on the day, Wall Street insiders said.

The heavy buying, however, cut into the banks’ already meager fees on the deal. The underwriters agreed to accept a smaller cut — just 1.1 percent of the $16 billion Facebook raised in the IPO — in order to land the high-profile assignment.

After splitting $176 million in fees, the firms likely spent more than they made in fees by buying the swooning stock. Sam Hamadeh, CEO of research firm Privco, believes the banks spent around $380 million on Facebook stock.

“On the heels of JPMorgan’s $2 billion ‘hedging’ trading loss, tThe underwriters have used up all the fees they made on the Facebook deal just to buy and prop up the stock to prevent a busted IPO,” said Hamadeh.

Another source said that the banks took a substantial hit yesterday, which started strong despite glitches that delayed Nasdaq trading in Facebook shares by 30 minutes past their 11 a.m. scheduled debut.

While there was plenty of finger-pointing yesterday, many blamed the bankers for setting the price too high to allow for upside. The IPO share priced at the high end of the $34 to $38 range, which had been raised from an initial range of $28 to $35.

The bankers were wary of pricing the shares too low, leaving money on the table and leading to an outrageous first-day pop. They were shooting for a modest first-day gain in the range of 5 percent to 10 percent.

Still, some observers heaped scorn on Facebook insiders who dumped their shares, saying it was a red flag that weighed on the stock.

Facebook had increased the number of shares being sold in the IPO by 25 percent, to 425 million, with most of the additional float coming from early investors looking to cash out.

The company’s sky-high valuation also made some investors queasy. At $38 a share, Facebook is valued at $104 billion — even though it only made $3.7 billion last year.

Facebook’s big day was a drag on other tech stocks. Trading in shares of Zynga was halted yesterday after a sharp drop, and the stock closed down 13.4 percent at $7.16. China’s social network RenRen was also down more than 20 percent, to $4.93.
gsloane@nypost.com

My take on this, from my Behavioral Finance background on how our financial system really operates, is the effort to hold up the Facebook IPO was an effort to hold up the stock market as a whole. For the BF folks, perception is everything. That is why they do what they do. The Counterparty Risk Management Policy Group (do a Google if new to you), led by the same firms that held up the Facebook share price, does not exist for no reason. One of their mandates is to promote market stability and that is what they just did. That Group works closed with the Plunge Protection Team (Working Group on Capital Markets) to support the US stock market at various times.

What we saw in the price rises of gold and silver at the end of the week was stunning and totally out of the natural order of the gold/silver price manipulation scheme. It was a wowser! My smeller tells me, because the dramatic rally was so pronounced, that we are headed for some serious fireworks in the financial arena.

The Gold Cartel could be in deep trouble now because their honcho, JP Morgan, is in deepening trouble. This is no minor event in terms of the gold/silver market manipulation scandal.

All hands on deck to prepare for the financial market commotion that seems to be right around the corner!

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Can you spot the Bubble(s)?

May 9, 2012 2 comments

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With gold and silver gradually heading south since leap day, many PMs investors are beginning to get cold feet.  Then we have, over the weekend Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway’s No.2 commenting that “civilized people don’t buy gold”. Not surprising – why would anyone bother since “gold is a barbaric relic” anyway.  And with Bill Gates saying he’s in the same camp with Buffett & Munger, are we missing something?

Today, GATA posted an “encouragement from Embry and Sinclair”, while Jim Sinclair wrote in his “Answering The Cries For Help” email despatch:

Today has been interesting in a perverse way. I have heard from every gold short who knows my name. I have heard from every weak gold holder that knows my name yelling for help. This time I cannot answer all the incoming communications. Nobody could.

A month ago I got over 3500 incoming emails in less than three hours. The shorts exulting by email really cannot expect an answer. Even the weak gold and frustrated gold share holders cannot expect me to assuage their pain one at a time. ..

It sure does look or sound scary out there. If I were a PMs investor, I’d probably be among the first to heed Sinclair’s advise “If you cannot stand the heat you must get out of the kitchen”.

But if you’re not investing in gold or silver, merely holding them as a form of currency, there’s really no need to panic. Take a minute to study the chart below. It puts things into perspective. And while you’re at it, try to see if you can spot a bubble or two!

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Perspective: The BIG Picture
Mouse over each bar for details. Click on bars for data source.

Why did Buffet, Munger & Gates say what they said? The answer is in this video.

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Sources:

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Yamashita’s Gold: Two sides of the Coin

May 2, 2012 Leave a comment

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Here’s a Question, an Answer & a Rebuttal over the mystery of the “Yamashita’s Gold”. If you’ve not researched the issue, this discourse might be a good place to start.

Question: ”Yamashita’s Gold”, What do you think?

Yamashita's Gold

Image via Wikipedia

“I know your are one of the world’s most studied experts on this subject, way ahead of me in knowledge, so I may not be

saying anything you haven’t already considered. I read the book ‘Yamashita’s Gold’ a couple of years ago. The quantities of gold written about stay in my mind. The information is all shadowy, of course. The idea that much of the Western world’s gold made its way to the Far East as payment for spices, silks, etc., also stays in my mind.

“That this gold was gathered up and moved around either before or during World War II also makes sense. It had to end up somewhere.

“Documentation is too thin to to be mainstream precious metals investment material, but where there’s smoke, there’s probably fire. So perhaps there is enough gold in the world to serve as backing for all the digital money that has been conjured up in recent years.

“Of course the powers that be do not want such golden shackles. I’ve seen the ‘mining statistics’-based analysis of how much gold should have been mined and should exist in stockpiles. It’s scholarly work, but there may be factors at work that haven’t been consider — such as that gold is now more plentiful on the earth’s surface than it was in early times.

“What do you think?”

GATA’s answer: “If U.S. had ‘Yamashita’s gold,’ they’d put it in Cracker Jack boxes

H.M., thanks for your note and the compliment but I’m not at all such an expert. To the contrary, the gold world is a big mystery to me, and GATA’s contribution is simply to raise the possibility that it is also actually a mystery to most supposed experts as well.

I’m aware of the Yamashita stories –

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yamashita%27s_gold

and particularly the one contending that a vast stash of gold plundered from Asia by Japanese forces during World War II was secretly confiscated by the United States. I have always discounted the story, in part because of the collapse of the London Gold Pool in 1968

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Gold_Pool

and in part because of all the documentation GATA has pried out of government sources acknowledging or implying great scarcity of the metal:

http://www.gata.org/taxonomy/term/21

For if so much hidden gold was available to it, the United States would not have been so desperate to close the gold pool as its reserves were depleted. Nor would the U.S. government through the years since World War II been so insistent on preventing a free gold market from developing. Indeed, if gold was actually as common as the Yamashita stories maintain, the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, and Bank of England already would have arranged for Louis d’Ors to be inserted as prizes in Cracker Jack and children’s cereal boxes.

After all, the way to devalue gold is to flood the world with it.

But what has the world been flooded with? Not real gold but “paper gold,” imaginary gold. This reliance on the imaginary and the ever-more-embarrassing secrecy imposed by Western central banks on their gold reserves and activities in the gold market argue for scarcity of the real thing rather than surplus.

They used to say on a popular television show that “the truth is out there.” More likely the truth is in there – in government files, like the files GATA pried open a little with the success of our recent federal Freedom of Information Act lawsuit against the Fed in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia:

http://www.gata.org/node/9917

There are grounds for bringing more such lawsuits, and with sufficient financial support, GATA will undertake them. If it really had Yamashita’s gold, the U.S. government wouldn’t be fighting us so hard.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Bix Weir’s Rebuttal: GATA Gets it Wrong on Yamashita’s Gold…but That’s OK!

Unfortunately, GATA gets it wrong here. This is one of the reasons I decided to go off on my own and create the Road to Roota website. Don’t get me wrong, the work that GATA does is essential in our battle against the Banksters but to shut your eyes to the “conspiracy side” is to miss a large part of what is going on. But I get it. Chris and Bill have worked tirelessly building “credibility” and I understand why they try to stay away from the more controversial topics. That is why I went off on my own.

From my research I am more than convinced that Yamashita’s gold is real and has been used by the US shadow government for years to fund their covert operations. All you have to do is read the exhaustive work of Sterling and Peggy Seagrave on the subject and you will understand. The book is called ”Gold Warriors: America’s Secret Recovery of Yamashita’s Gold” and it is a must read for anybody who wants to understand what goes on behind the scenes of the mysterious gold market.

The GATA posting talks about the documentation that supports their position (which is excellent) but for as much official documentation GATA has the Seagraves have discovered 10 times more to back up the Yamashita’s Gold story. This documentation ranges from US Government documents to Federal Reserve documents to Grand Jury testimony to US Congressional testimony and on and on. There are also CD’s of dozens of scanned original documents supporting the Seagraves claims in the book.

The end result from my analysis was that Yamishita’s Gold is 100% real.

Kudo’s to Chris for pointing out that GATA is not the expert on the mysteries and conspiracies of the gold market but there are experts out there for anyone who wants to spend the time to do the research. Here’s a couple places to start:

“Gold Warriors: America’s Secret Recovery of Yamashita’s Gold” by Sterling & Peggy Seagrave

http://www.amazon.com/Gold-Warriors-Americas-Recovery-Yamashitas/dp/1859845428

The September 11 Commission Report (Gold information starts on page 153)

http://www.scribd.com/doc/17233336/September-11-Commission-Report-Revised-December-2008

Once you fully research the Yamishita’s gold story you will come away with the same conclusion I did…That it is a true story and must be factored into the overall gold analysis.

But that it does not diminish the work of GATA or the fact that Gold (and Silver) are the best forms of money. They are far superior to the Quadrillions of paper and electronic monetary instruments being created that show no signs of “Production Slow-downs”. As a matter of fact, the GATA argument that if the Yamashita stories were true then the US would not go to the trouble of suppressing the price grossly underestimates the importance of Gold price suppression.

A better argument would be that the US deems Gold to be so important that they suppress the price IN SPITE of all the Yamashita’s gold available!

At the end of the day…Gold will continue to THRIVE even if they start putting gold coins in Cracker Jack boxes :-)

BullionVault & GoldMoney: So different, yet so similar

April 17, 2012 Leave a comment

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If you’ve checked out the Compare AFE, BullionVault & GoldMoney page, you’d have noticed that BullionVault & GoldMoney packaged their bullion dealership and custodian services very differently. It’s interesting to note how the same service can be approached in such a contrasting manner.

There is however, one other significant difference not highlighted in the comparison. It’s not so much about differences in the companies’ services. Rather, it’s over differing opinions of the founders in the much debated the matter of Gold Cartel and Gold Price Manipulation.

In a recent interview by Chris Martenson, Paul Tustain of BullionVault said:

I am not really strongly in the manipulation camp but I do agree that market manipulation tends to happen in futures contracts. This is not anything to do with gold or silver specifically, it is to do with the way futures contracts work.

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London AM & PM Fix

There are many gold and silver market abnormalities that have been cited as supporting evidence of gold price suppression by the “manipulation camp”. One of the more interesting ones is the phenomenon where the London AM fix has almost always been higher than the PM fix for over a decade. When asked concerning the above, Paul responded:

But I think there is a rational market explanation and I do not think that market manipulation by governments is in fact it. I think it is much simpler than that.

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It appears that he is using the Occam’s Razor, which is a principle urging one to select among competing hypotheses that which makes the fewest assumptions and thereby offers the simplest explanation of the effect. Put another way, it admonishes us to choose from a set of otherwise equivalent models of a given phenomenon the simplest one. It should be noted however, that simplest available theory need not be most accurate. Listen to Paul’s take on this issue and make your own conclusion after reading a detailed analysis of this phenomenon by Adrian Douglas. Paul also goes into great detail showing how other perceived market abnormalities or statistical aberrations can be explained away without invoking the manipulation theory, including the much discussed bullion banks’ short position in the futures market. A transcript of the interview can be found here.

Gold trading is influenced by government intervention

On the other corner of the gold price manipulation ring, we have James Turk, founder of GoldMoney, director of GoldMoney Foundation and consultant at Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA). James’ work exposing the gold price suppression scheme is all over the web.

In his April 13 article Some Answers to Doug Casey’s Questions James wrote:

The investigation into the inner workings of the gold market that are out of public view and decided behind closed doors in central banks is an ongoing effort. It has been that way for years, and fortunately, the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee has been there relentlessly compiling the mounting evidence that something is amiss, that gold trading is influenced by government intervention aimed at keeping the price from rising to its fair value. Or to put it another way, by allowing the gold price to climb higher year after year in what I have dubbed a “managed retreat”, governments hope that people will not notice what is happening to the ongoing debasement of the US dollar…

That was his conclusion at the end of his argument for the case that gold (& silver) price manipulation by central planners  has been and still remains a strategic policy to keep the dollar and the banks that support it alive. Read the full article here.

In his presentation at the GATA 2008 conference, James explained why central banks interfere in the gold market. Interesting to note how he foresaw the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy by predicting another Bear Stearns collapse was only several months away.

So there you have it – two innovative entrepreneurs, two great companies, very contrasting views on PMs market manipulation but they share one very important thing in common – Their relationships with their clients are on a Bailee/Bailor basis and not on a Debtor/Creditor basis. Both companies vouch in no uncertain terms that their clients have complete ownership of physical bullion in their custody. Their At the end of the day, I think that’s what matters most.

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Further Reading:

Decoded: Is there Any Gold in Fort Knox?

October 12, 2011 2 comments

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Fort Knox. Is there any Gold? Is it Empty?In 1933, U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt outlawed the private ownership of gold by American citizens, forcing them to sell any gold bullion in excess of $100 to the Federal Reserve at $20.67 per troy ounce. To store the huge stockpile of confiscated gold, the US Treasury built the United States Bullion Depository at Fort Knox, Kentucky, in 1936. This vault has a 25″ thick casing with a 21″ vault door made of the latest torch and drill resistant material weighing 20 tons.

There must be something very valuable in there to justify this level of security.  Official records say there’s 4,577 metric tons (147.2 million oz. troy) of gold bullion worth over $200 billion at current prices. Of late however, there’s an increasing number of respectable people questioning the notion that the stated amount of gold is actually still there, and if so, that it remains unencumbered.

In this History Channel documentary Decoded, Brad Meltzer attempts to answer the question “Is there any gold in Fort Knox?”. Featuring interviews with notable figures like Chris Powell of GATA,  Law Professor Kevin Goldberg, Senator Dee Huddleston, former US Senator of Kentucky and many more, it’s an eye opener.

Part 1 “What if I told you that Fort Knox is empty.The last time anyone was allowed inside was in 1974. Many experts today believe the soilders stationed here are protecting absolutely nothing.They point to numerous theories to explain their believes.., but if you tell me that no one’s been allowed to see this gold since 1974, I want to know if it’s there and I want to know what else is inside. It is time to decode Fort Knox.”

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Part 2 Craig Hulet, a returning veteran charged with issuing weapons to guards at Fort Knox was told by his Officer In Charge not to issue any ammunition because there was no gold inside. As for potential armed intruders – there’s a policy of “Let them in and zip them up”.A Financial Engineer from Princeton who spoke on condition of anonymity discusses the implications of an empty Fort Knox. He compares his work on financial derivatives at Wall Street to the Manhattan Project.

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Part 3-

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Is there Gold in Fort Knox?

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Why hasn’t gold kept up with inflation?

September 22, 2011 Leave a comment

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Towards the end of Chris Powell’s speech at the 18th CLSA Investors’ Forum in Hong Kong, he addressed the all important question Why hasn’t gold kept up with inflation?

It’s because Western governments found ways of vastly increasing the supply of gold without having to go through the trouble of mining it — to dishoard and lease it from central bank reserves and to issue certificates of deposit against gold that never existed in the first place.

“Why” is supposed to be a basic question of journalism. But it has fallen out of financial journalism when it comes to gold, he lamented.

In recent years, and especially in recent months, I have spent much time explaining the gold price suppression scheme to leading financial journalists in the West. I have given them the documentation. Some of these journalists seemed interested. But none has ever reported anything about the issue. One writer who works for a major news agency in the United States was intrigued enough to call the Federal Reserve and ask about its gold swaps. She got a very telling “no comment.” But unfortunately she could not get her editor’s permission to write a gold story.

Frustrating as all this is, it is not too surprising. After all, who are the major advertisers in the Western financial news media and the major sources of financial news? The market manipulators and governments themselves. And journalists seem to take for granted that central banks operate in secret, particularly in regard to gold, so there’s no point in questioning them — even though central banking now determines the value of all capital, labor, goods, and services in the world, and does so in secret.

So here I am in Asia, which is a major victim of the gold price suppression scheme. Maybe there will be more curiosity and indignation about it here.

But Asia is not the only victim of this scheme. My own country may be the biggest victim. For this scheme has helped to corrupt the United States, destroying our once-free markets and the accountability of our government.

We in GATA do what we can, even though, from our beginning, we have wondered whether we could really presume to speak for gold. And not just for gold, of course — we are not idolaters — but for the economic and political liberty of individuals and the national sovereignty that gold serves and stands for. With gold always under attack precisely for what it represents, and with no others coming forward to defend it for what it represents, with even the gold mining industry’s main trade association refusing to acknowledge the attack, we have hoped that any presumption on our part might be forgiven.

We remain largely amateurs. At the outset we did not half understand what was going on and what we were setting about to do. Our name preserves that imperfect understanding. We thought we had discovered just another anti-trust violation. It was a while before we perceived that we were up against government policy and that most of what we were discovering had been discovered long ago, at least in principle, just not well taught, publicized, preserved, and made timely again.

Because it can work only through surreptitiousness and deceit, this government policy will be defeated when it is more widely understood — and every day it is being better understood, because it is getting so brazen. It was more brazen than ever the other day when Switzerland devalued its franc, the world’s leading “safe haven” currency, apparently leaving the “safe haven” field exclusively to gold. But just a few minutes before the Swiss franc’s devaluation was announced, unidentified sellers dumped thousands of gold futures contracts on markets around the world, causing the gold price to plunge along with the Swiss franc. These sellers plainly did not aim to make a profit from their gold holdings; if they had intended to make a profit, they would have sold gradually into the market. No, they meant to knock the price down hard, and they did.

These sellers almost surely were central banks. But as far as I could tell, no Western journalist has yet put a question to any central banker about that strange and counterintuitive action in the gold market.

I ask for your help in forcing an end to the gold price suppression scheme. I ask in the cause of giving individuals, nations, and all humanity a chance at democracy, liberty, and limited government with a neutral, fair, and impartial international currency that serves not just one government or another or one class or another but rather the whole brotherhood of man.

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> Read the full speech here

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Chris Powell, is the treasurer/secretary of Gold Anti Trust Committee and a newspaper editor in Connecticut.

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